Is it this easy to figure out all the plot twists in this new modern drama?

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March 7, 2002: SAN FRANCISCO, California (Reuters)

International researchers have compiled what they say is the world's most complete database of lost, stolen and misplaced nuclear material.

It depicts a world awash in weapons-grade uranium and plutonium that nobody can account for.

"It truly is frightening," Lyudmila Zaitseva, a visiting fellow at Stanford University's Institute for International Studies, said on Wednesday. "I think this is the tip of the iceberg."

Stanford announced its database as U.S. senators held a hearing in Washington to assess the threat of "dirty bombs," or radioactive material dispersed by conventional explosives.

The Stanford program, dubbed the Database on Nuclear Smuggling, Theft and Orphan Radiation Sources, is intended to help governments and international agencies track wayward nuclear material worldwide, supplementing existing national programs that often fail to share information.

The project took on added urgency following the September 11 attacks on New York and Washington, which spurred fears that extremists might seek to use nuclear weapons in the future.

"It blows the mind, the lack of information," said George Bunn, a veteran arms control negotiator and a member of the database group. "What we're trying to say is: 'What are the facts?"'

Chilling facts
The facts, even on cursory examination, are chilling. Zaitseva said that, over the past 10 years, at least 40 kg (88 pounds) of weapons-usable uranium and plutonium had been stolen from poorly protected nuclear facilities in the former Soviet Union.

While most of this material subsequently was retrieved, at least 2 kg (4.4 pounds) of highly enriched uranium stolen from a reactor in Georgia remains missing.

Other thefts have included several fuel rods that disappeared from a research reactor in the Congo in the mid-1990s. While one of these fuel rods later resurfaced in Italy -- reportedly in the hands of the Mafia -- the other has not been found.

The Stanford group, led by nuclear physicist and arms control researcher Friedrich Steinhausler, decided to form its database after becoming alarmed over the patchy nature of most of the available information.

Combining data from two existing unclassified databases and adding new information from sources ranging from government agencies to local media reports, the team has evaluated each entry for accuracy and probability.

An expert at the Federation of American Scientists, the oldest U.S. arms control group, welcomed the establishment of the database, saying it could play a crucial role in helping governments ascertain the real level of nuclear threat.

"This is a smart step," said Michael Levi, director of the group's Strategic Security Project. "Knowing what's out there is the first step to bringing it back in."

Orphan radiation also a threat
The database includes illicitly obtained weapons-grade nuclear material as well as "orphaned" radiation sources -- scientific or medical material that may have been lost, misplaced or simply thrown away but which still poses a health and security threat.

Steinhausler said the database would be open only to approved researchers, and that the Stanford group was beginning to contact government agencies in the United States and Europe about sharing information to build more effective international supervision of nuclear material.

"We cannot supply the means to improve the situation," Steinhausler said in a statement.

"We're pinpointing weaknesses and loopholes and saying, 'Do something about it." Zaitseva, visiting Stanford from the Kazakhstan National Nuclear Center, said the database was helping to build a dim picture of the market for stolen uranium, plutonium, and other dangerous materials.

But she added that while in many cases those behind nuclear thefts can be identified, the ultimate destination of the nuclear material has remained a mystery.

"We haven't found a single occasion in which the actual end users have been caught," Zaitseva told Reuters.

"We can only guess by the routes where the material is going. We can't say for sure if it is Iraq, Iran, North Korea, al Qaeda or Hezbollah. We can only make assumptions."

She added that the dangers of an unsupervised, underground market in nuclear material were likely to grow, noting that a U.S.-sponsored program to secure nuclear components in the former Soviet Union thus far had only locked up about a third of an estimated 600 tons of weapons-usable material.

"It's just not protected," she said. "This is hot stuff. If you steal 20 kilograms of that material, you can build a nuclear weapon."

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March 9th, 2002: WASHINGTON (Reuters)

Citing a classified Pentagon report, the Los Angeles Times reported Saturday that the Bush administration has told the Defense Department to prepare contingency plans to use nuclear weapons against at least seven countries.

The military also was directed to build smaller nuclear weapons for use in certain battlefield situations, the newspaper reported.

The countries named in the secret report -- provided to Congress on January 8 -- were China, Russia, Iraq, North Korea, Iran, Libya and Syria, the Times reported.

The three contingencies listed for possible use of the weapons were against targets able to withstand nonnuclear attack; in retaliation for attack with nuclear, biological or chemical weapons, or "in the event of surprising military developments," according to the newspaper.

"The report says the Pentagon should be prepared to use nuclear weapons in an Arab-Israeli conflict, in a war between China and Taiwan, or in an attack from North Korea on the south. They might also become necessary in an attack by Iraq on Israel or another neighbor," The Times said.

While officials have long acknowledged that they had detailed nuclear plans for an attack on Russia, the "Nuclear Posture Review" apparently marks the first time that an official list of potential target countries has come to light, analysts told the Times.

"This is dynamite," said Joseph Cirincione, a nuclear arms expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. "I can imagine what these countries are going to be saying at the U.N.," he told the newspaper.

Arms control advocates told the Times "the report's directives on development of smaller nuclear weapons could signal that the Bush administration is more willing to overlook a long-standing taboo against the use of nuclear weapons except as a last resort.

However, conservative analysts said that the Pentagon must prepare for all possibilities as other countries, and some terrorist groups, are engaged in weapons development programs. Their position was that smaller weapons have a deterrent role because rogue nations or terrorists might not believe that the United States would use more destructive multikiloton weapons, the Times reported.

Jack Spencer, a defense analyst at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, told the newspaper the contents of the report did not surprise him and represent "the right way to develop a nuclear posture for a post-Cold War world."

The Times reported that a copy of the report was obtained by defense analyst and Times contributor William Arkin.

The Pentagon refused to comment.

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